Aknilak
0xc83ca5941251c3eed46773a430d41077b00588d8
- Realised P&L
- $-4.0k
- Volume
- $259.0k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $2.4k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration24.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration92.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.080 | $2.2k | −$3.3k |
| Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.009 | $190.68 | −$11.22 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$356.68at 0.796Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31?
- +$321.79at 0.991Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July?
- +$177.61at 0.950Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30?
- +$144.69at 0.770Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?
- +$102.86at 0.700Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-11 12:18 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.1605424516 | $4.3k |
| 04-11 08:26 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.1690165169 | $3.1k |
| 03-23 05:35 | Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.009 | $201.90 |
| 03-23 05:35 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.178 | $115.70 |
| 01-21 13:32 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.2 | $2.9k |
| 11-29 15:16 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.1799999995 | $275.39 |
| 10-20 17:18 | Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31? | SELL | 0.869695625 | $1.1k |
| 10-15 10:46 | Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31? | SELL | 0.5845463768 | $1.7k |
| 09-29 13:32 | Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31? | BUY | 0.58 | $820.81 |
| 09-29 13:26 | Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31? | BUY | 0.7984565932 | $2.7k |
| 09-29 13:26 | Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31? | BUY | 0.5685947692 | $815.04 |
| 09-26 02:02 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.21 | $3.3k |
| 09-08 11:03 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.22 | $990.00 |
| 09-08 09:36 | Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? | SELL | 0.9687490148 | $9.0k |
| 08-30 10:01 | Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? | BUY | 0.7699999993 | $602.85 |