bouncyonion44
0xc78c980527ba2f790cd4535e4dd0ecf501430c5a
- Realised P&L
- $-4.0k
- Volume
- $956.6k
- Markets traded
- 49
- Open portfolio
- $3.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded49
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample24 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration84.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$17.6kat 0.444Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?
- +$11.8kat 0.338Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
- +$5.5kat 0.541Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
- +$2.2kat 0.744Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
- +$1.4kat 0.615Will Matthew Stafford win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-17 18:42 | Northwestern vs. Michigan State | BUY | 0.76 | $760.00 |
| 10-17 18:40 | Penn State vs. Michigan | BUY | 0.67 | $603.00 |
| 10-17 18:39 | Spread: Michigan (-4.5) | BUY | 0.54 | $192.24 |
| 10-17 18:39 | Penn State vs. Michigan | BUY | 0.67 | $871.00 |
| 10-17 18:38 | Spread: Michigan (-3.5) | BUY | 0.44 | $352.00 |
| 10-17 15:55 | Spread: Northwestern (-6.5) | BUY | 0.56 | $504.00 |
| 10-17 15:54 | Penn State vs. Michigan | BUY | 0.67 | $1.5k |
| 10-17 15:54 | Spread: Northwestern (-6.5) | BUY | 0.56 | $840.00 |
| 10-17 15:53 | Spread: Northwestern (-6.5) | BUY | 0.56 | $224.00 |
| 02-01 00:14 | Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-31? | SELL | 0.999 | $10.0k |
| 01-30 03:34 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | SELL | 0.9 | $1.6k |
| 01-30 03:28 | Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | SELL | 0.046 | $3.22 |
| 01-30 03:27 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | SELL | 0.92 | $42.32 |
| 01-30 03:06 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | SELL | 0.92 | $5.7k |
| 01-30 03:05 | Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? | SELL | 0.006 | $108.27 |