PolyBot

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Traders

bouncyonion44

0xc78c980527ba2f790cd4535e4dd0ecf501430c5a

Realised P&L
$-4.0k
Volume
$956.6k
Markets traded
49
Open portfolio
$3.5k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded49
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration39.6% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample24 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration84.2% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Penn State vs. Michigan · Michigan0.6700.665$2.9k−$22.00
Spread: Michigan (-3.5) · Penn State0.4400.435$348.00−$4.00
Spread: Michigan (-4.5) · Michigan0.5400.545$194.02+$1.78
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? · Yes0.3231.000$6.87+$4.65
Spread: Northwestern (-6.5) · Northwestern0.5600.001$1.40−$1.6k
Northwestern vs. Michigan State · Michigan State0.7600.001$0.50−$759.50
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? · Yes0.5760.000$0.00−$1.6k
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? · Yes0.1220.000$0.00−$13.80
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? · Yes0.1900.000$0.00−$1.2k
Miami vs. Ohio State · Ohio State0.7700.000$0.00−$1.0k
Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? · Yes0.0910.000$0.00−$2.0k
No airdrop in 2025? · Yes0.3810.000$0.00−$991.04
Will Alabama make the College Football Playoff? · No0.2360.000$0.00−$254.40
Will Josh Shapiro be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? · Yes0.3130.000$0.00−$5.1k
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2024 meeting? · Yes0.0760.000$0.00−$1.5k

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-17 18:42Northwestern vs. Michigan StateBUY0.76$760.00
10-17 18:40Penn State vs. MichiganBUY0.67$603.00
10-17 18:39Spread: Michigan (-4.5)BUY0.54$192.24
10-17 18:39Penn State vs. MichiganBUY0.67$871.00
10-17 18:38Spread: Michigan (-3.5)BUY0.44$352.00
10-17 15:55Spread: Northwestern (-6.5)BUY0.56$504.00
10-17 15:54Penn State vs. MichiganBUY0.67$1.5k
10-17 15:54Spread: Northwestern (-6.5)BUY0.56$840.00
10-17 15:53Spread: Northwestern (-6.5)BUY0.56$224.00
02-01 00:14Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-31?SELL0.999$10.0k
01-30 03:34Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?SELL0.9$1.6k
01-30 03:28Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?SELL0.046$3.22
01-30 03:27Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?SELL0.92$42.32
01-30 03:06Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?SELL0.92$5.7k
01-30 03:05Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?SELL0.006$108.27