ChristineMueller9039
0xc758e34d74cd7f7e9a989e0673ddd9448e668153
- Realised P&L
- $-1.5k
- Volume
- $66.4k
- Markets traded
- 71
- Open portfolio
- $112.04
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded71
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration90.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.475 | $101.17 | +$5.33 |
| Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.190 | $7.79 | −$27.47 |
| Will Tempo launch a token by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.005 | $3.07 | −$405.00 |
| Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.24 |
| Will Charles McCall win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$52.38 |
| Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28? · No | 0.750 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$195.00 |
| Odds of Khamenei out by January 31 over 30% on Sunday? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$183.56 |
| Will Megabonk win Sit Back and Relax in the 2025 Steam Awards? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.34 |
| Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by March 31? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$171.76 |
| Will coffeexcoin win the competition? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$116.48 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$95.48at 0.780Will PEAK win Better With Friends at the 2025 Steam Awards?
- +$91.80at 0.150Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minutes and 1 hour and 45 minutes?
- +$67.30at 0.810Will Trump say "Inflation" while addressing the nation on December 17?
- +$64.54at 0.570Will Terri Pickens win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary election?
- +$32.13at 0.270Will Wicked: For Good win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-11 04:08 | Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in January 2026? | SELL | 0.89 | $118.04 |
| 01-11 03:33 | Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in January 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $336.16 |
| 01-10 23:21 | Will the New England Patriots be eliminated in the Wild Card Round? | SELL | 0.61 | $26.23 |
| 01-10 23:19 | Will the New England Patriots be eliminated in the Wild Card Round? | SELL | 0.61 | $106.75 |
| 01-10 23:17 | Will the New England Patriots be eliminated in the Wild Card Round? | SELL | 0.61 | $164.09 |
| 01-10 19:22 | Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? | SELL | 0.45 | $53.10 |
| 01-10 17:46 | Will F1 be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.764 | $22.92 |
| 01-10 04:08 | Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 15–20 years in prison? | SELL | 0.8 | $157.60 |
| 01-09 23:12 | Will the New England Patriots be eliminated in the Wild Card Round? | BUY | 0.65 | $316.55 |
| 01-09 15:14 | Will F1 be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.842 | $25.26 |
| 01-09 14:39 | Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division? | SELL | 0.1 | $8.40 |
| 01-09 04:32 | Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs? | SELL | 0.73 | $28.47 |
| 01-09 03:27 | Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs? | BUY | 0.75 | $29.25 |
| 01-08 23:47 | Will January 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record? | SELL | 0.25 | $186.75 |
| 01-08 22:25 | Will January 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record? | SELL | 0.26 | $2.34 |