0xc73478fc346f900dcf17b7e5b35b54b71206ca52
- Realised P&L
- $2.27
- Volume
- $70.93
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $12.83
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration24.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.625 | $3.21 | +$1.21 |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · No | 0.770 | 1.000 | $2.60 | +$0.60 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.725 | $2.30 | +$0.30 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? · No | 0.340 | 0.275 | $1.62 | −$0.38 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.430 | 0.275 | $1.28 | −$0.72 |
| Will USA Today (TDAY) beat quarterly earnings? · No | 0.490 | 0.355 | $1.06 | −$0.41 |
| Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $345 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.114 | $0.76 | −$1.24 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.17at 0.480Will Grab (GRAB) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$1.87at 0.450Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?
- +$1.74at 0.420Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during cabinet meeting?
- +$1.19at 0.610Will Sonos (SONO) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$0.98at 0.670Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 20:28 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999422 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 12:25 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.6299999181 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 16:23 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899998908 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 08:23 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $345 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.299999925 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 07:29 | Will Grab (GRAB) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.479999952 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 07:26 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.4299999505 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 23:20 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 15:06 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |
| 07-30 12:31 | Will USA Today (TDAY) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.49 | $1.47 |
| 07-29 10:15 | Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.42 | $1.26 |
| 07-29 00:52 | Will Sonos (SONO) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.6099999377 | $1.86 |
| 07-28 00:48 | Will SoFi (SOFI) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.36 | $1.08 |
| 07-27 15:23 | Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" during Michigan remarks? | BUY | 0.43 | $1.29 |
| 07-27 02:09 | Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.7799999013 | $1.58 |
| 07-26 14:06 | New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.91 |