0xC729d4143a5c9cA6cFc51830c8aae8E417967534-1770726235095
0xc729d4143a5c9ca6cfc51830c8aae8e417967534
- Realised P&L
- $309.23
- Volume
- $28.9k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $159.13
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration54.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.093 | 0.227 | $159.13 | +$94.13 |
| Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on April 8? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$26.10 |
| US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? · Yes | 0.019 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$27.00 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? · Yes | 0.027 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.079 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$60.00 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? · Yes | 0.065 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$41.00 |
| Will Binance be accused of insider trading? · Yes | 0.025 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on April 11? · Yes | 0.169 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$57.10 |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.55 |
| Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on April 6? · Yes | 0.025 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$291.00at 0.206US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
- +$198.89at 0.054Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$40.62at 0.098Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
- +$-36.29at 0.180Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on April 13?
- +$-80.99at 0.016US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-12 20:38 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on April 13? | SELL | 0.1118 | $5.59 |
| 04-11 23:15 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on April 13? | BUY | 0.04 | $0.33 |
| 04-11 15:08 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on April 13? | BUY | 0.12 | $5.55 |
| 04-10 00:32 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on April 11? | SELL | 0.2 | $35.77 |
| 04-10 00:32 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on April 11? | SELL | 0.2 | $23.85 |
| 04-10 00:29 | Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.012 | $6.00 |
| 04-09 23:53 | Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.011 | $0.64 |
| 04-09 18:59 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on April 11? | SELL | 0.18 | $0.90 |
| 04-09 13:37 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on April 11? | BUY | 0.12 | $1.09 |
| 04-08 15:52 | Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on April 8? | BUY | 0.024 | $1.02 |
| 04-07 22:11 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | SELL | 0.63 | $216.00 |
| 03-30 18:06 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | BUY | 0.18 | $54.00 |
| 03-19 18:04 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BUY | 0.0599999972 | $20.00 |
| 03-19 18:04 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | BUY | 0.2099999978 | $60.00 |
| 03-11 22:47 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? | BUY | 0.0269999987 | $20.00 |