0xrandd8
0xc722c1a1a0bfddf4e0edb3286f7ebce127221334
- Realised P&L
- $10.6k
- Volume
- $6.35M
- Markets traded
- 816
- Open portfolio
- $1.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded816
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.247 | 0.246 | $1.2k | −$4.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.4kat 0.272US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$1.2kat 0.369US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
- +$1.1kat 0.023US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$1.0kat 0.520Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?
- +$877.18at 0.355Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 17:43 | Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.182 | $54.60 |
| 10-29 17:42 | Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.181 | $5.43 |
| 10-29 17:34 | Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.293 | $3.94 |
| 10-29 17:33 | Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.2276057097 | $34.20 |
| 10-29 17:32 | Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.2108571293 | $22.14 |
| 10-29 17:31 | Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.2000283193 | $211.90 |
| 10-29 17:07 | Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.22994 | $229.94 |
| 10-29 17:06 | Predict.fun FDV above $3B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.0428446304 | $43.83 |
| 10-29 17:06 | Predict.fun FDV above $2.5B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.07 | $143.39 |
| 10-29 17:05 | Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.229985 | $459.97 |
| 10-29 17:04 | Predict.fun FDV above $3B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.0500886049 | $242.12 |
| 10-29 17:00 | Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.03301715 | $66.03 |
| 10-28 15:28 | Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.3939323671 | $407.72 |
| 10-28 13:17 | Predict.fun FDV above $2.5B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.12 | $16.70 |
| 10-28 10:33 | Predict.fun FDV above $2.5B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.14 | $28.00 |