wrongbyone
0xc706c3d0bece2666ffb6c48627ac2779d86848cf
- Realised P&L
- $-501.61
- Volume
- $13.7k
- Markets traded
- 829
- Open portfolio
- $11.10
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded829
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration86.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on September 29? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.240 | $9.60 | −$0.40 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on September 29? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.100 | $1.00 | +$0.30 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on September 30? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.100 | $0.50 | +$0.15 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on September 28? · Yes | 0.012 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.74 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 21? · No | 0.900 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.40 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 18? · No | 0.770 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.85 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 19? · No | 0.690 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.45 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 17? · No | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.72 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$69.21at 0.169Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET
- +$50.12at 0.232Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET
- +$49.07at 0.117Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET
- +$40.91at 0.127Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET
- +$40.58at 0.242Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 08:11 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.0122394366 | $1.74 |
| 08-19 05:44 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 21? | BUY | 0.8 | $4.00 |
| 08-19 05:42 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 21? | BUY | 0.9 | $5.40 |
| 08-18 05:40 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 20? | BUY | 0.71 | $3.55 |
| 08-18 05:14 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 20? | BUY | 0.76 | $5.32 |
| 08-18 05:14 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 20? | BUY | 0.89 | $5.34 |
| 08-17 05:40 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 19? | BUY | 0.69 | $3.45 |
| 08-17 05:20 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 19? | BUY | 0.91 | $4.55 |
| 08-17 05:14 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 19? | BUY | 0.88 | $5.28 |
| 08-16 05:42 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 18? | BUY | 0.79 | $3.95 |
| 08-16 05:14 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 18? | BUY | 0.77 | $3.85 |
| 08-16 05:14 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 18? | BUY | 0.77 | $3.85 |
| 08-16 03:44 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 16? | SELL | 0.95 | $6.65 |
| 08-16 03:44 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 16? | SELL | 0.98 | $6.86 |
| 08-16 03:44 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 16? | SELL | 0.73 | $3.65 |