jordanleach
0xc6f52474d1c3ce825de7b82008a9b3d0d6de6695
- Realised P&L
- $-1.29
- Volume
- $8.4k
- Markets traded
- 48
- Open portfolio
- $123.36
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded48
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample46 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)91.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration86.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.979 | 0.966 | $106.45 | −$1.45 |
| Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $110 in September? · No | 0.996 | 0.957 | $16.91 | −$0.70 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.05at 0.640Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026?
- +$0.98at 0.600Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31?
- +$0.90at 0.981Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by March 31, 2026?
- +$0.79at 0.750Will Russia enter Vasylivka by April 30, 2026?
- +$0.74at 0.994Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 14:33 | Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $110 in September? | BUY | 0.996 | $17.61 |
| 09-13 13:21 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15? | BUY | 0.9929999997 | $17.34 |
| 08-10 13:16 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? | BUY | 0.997 | $12.71 |
| 07-17 10:21 | Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9786372057 | $107.90 |
| 05-11 18:46 | Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.994 | $122.66 |
| 04-20 14:24 | Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30? | BUY | 0.7699999097 | $1.79 |
| 04-20 13:34 | Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? | BUY | 0.999 | $74.59 |
| 04-16 09:43 | Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 April 13-19? | BUY | 0.999 | $74.24 |
| 04-09 14:54 | Will Ethereum reach $2,800 April 6-12? | BUY | 0.999 | $73.98 |
| 04-09 13:07 | Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by April 30? | BUY | 0.8899999648 | $2.53 |
| 04-02 20:39 | Will Ethereum reach $2,700 March 30-April 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $77.22 |
| 04-02 20:20 | Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $2.89 |
| 04-02 16:45 | Will Russia enter Vasylivka by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $2.37 |
| 04-02 15:18 | Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5399998991 | $1.07 |
| 04-02 15:00 | Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9889999999 | $43.92 |