cheadle
0xc6c5e163d31511ee06e525043582235a95491e30
- Realised P&L
- $-26.40
- Volume
- $3.5k
- Markets traded
- 83
- Open portfolio
- $205.49
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded83
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ana Brnabić win the next Serbia presidential election? · No | 0.690 | 0.785 | $205.49 | +$24.87 |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by March 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31? · No | 0.720 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$122.00 |
| GTA VI released in 2025? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$75.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$76.09at 0.568Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?
- +$72.18at 0.409Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?
- +$50.71at 0.723Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?
- +$37.14at 0.350Will Kanye launch a coin in February?
- +$34.21at 0.391Will Russia capture Kurakhove before December?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-09 17:32 | Will Ana Brnabić win the next Serbia presidential election? | BUY | 0.6899999989 | $180.62 |
| 05-04 18:13 | Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31? | BUY | 0.7199999986 | $122.00 |
| 04-07 12:53 | Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? | BUY | 0.7230259154 | $132.37 |
| 04-07 12:53 | Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30? | BUY | 0.4092386562 | $50.00 |
| 02-12 08:48 | Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999964 | $50.00 |
| 10-11 06:54 | Will GTA 6 cost $100+? | SELL | 0.942 | $47.63 |
| 10-10 00:10 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31? | SELL | 0.9682980906 | $184.08 |
| 08-17 15:19 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31? | BUY | 0.5680774771 | $108.00 |
| 03-23 09:21 | Will the IRS collect more taxes this year than last? | BUY | 0.76 | $40.38 |
| 03-23 09:19 | Will the U.S. military implement transgender ban? | SELL | 0.976612595 | $39.86 |
| 03-22 18:24 | Will GTA 6 cost $100+? | BUY | 0.8899999913 | $45.00 |
| 03-01 08:43 | Will Hooters file for bankruptcy before June? | BUY | 0.4544529212 | $38.00 |
| 03-01 08:35 | Will the U.S. military implement transgender ban? | BUY | 0.4899999939 | $20.00 |
| 02-26 12:45 | Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? | BUY | 0.7299999994 | $25.00 |
| 02-26 12:42 | Will Russia recapture Sudzha by April 30? | BUY | 0.7 | $15.00 |