dontscry
0xc68f2fa39fc4ab06a82f084825b6f29cbffd85ad
- Realised P&L
- $-262.01
- Volume
- $214.9k
- Markets traded
- 71
- Open portfolio
- $1.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded71
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.923 | 0.963 | $962.75 | +$39.13 |
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.860 | 0.987 | $205.53 | +$26.36 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No | 0.480 | 0.405 | $202.50 | −$37.50 |
| Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2027? · Yes | 0.802 | 0.775 | $127.96 | −$4.39 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.555 | $92.63 | −$10.85 |
| Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? · No | 0.960 | 0.986 | $32.52 | +$0.84 |
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.875 | 0.859 | $25.67 | −$0.49 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.950 | 0.992 | $11.90 | +$0.50 |
| Will Google (GOOGL) hit $335 before 2026?? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$102.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$300.01at 0.826Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$77.55at 0.830Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?
- +$36.03at 0.008Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$32.06at 0.169Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?
- +$24.48at 0.520Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-12 10:44 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.48 | $240.00 |
| 09-12 10:44 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December? | SELL | 0.9708888889 | $436.90 |
| 09-12 10:44 | Concrete FDV above $50M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.95 | $18.05 |
| 09-12 10:43 | Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2027? | BUY | 0.7494 | $56.20 |
| 08-27 09:03 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | SELL | 0.11 | $176.00 |
| 08-27 09:03 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | SELL | 0.37 | $592.00 |
| 08-27 09:03 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | SELL | 0.48 | $768.00 |
| 08-27 09:02 | Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2027? | BUY | 0.846 | $76.14 |
| 08-27 09:01 | Concrete FDV above $50M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.85 | $16.15 |
| 08-27 08:55 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | SELL | 0.7 | $126.00 |
| 08-13 14:35 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | BUY | 0.12 | $192.00 |
| 08-13 14:35 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | BUY | 0.38 | $608.00 |
| 08-13 14:35 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.5 | $800.00 |
| 08-13 14:32 | Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.62 | $103.48 |
| 08-13 14:32 | Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.875 | $26.16 |