Curmefb
0xc68bde9eff58b6bd10f874b69d6319e21c7310e8
- Realised P&L
- $-78.41
- Volume
- $3.8k
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $23.94
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample40 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)57.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic FC vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 2.5 · Under | 0.480 | 0.475 | $23.94 | −$0.25 |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02? · No | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.45 |
| Counter-Strike: G2 vs Astralis (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A · G2 | 0.700 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.00 |
| Will Burgos CF win on 2026-05-31? · No | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.83 |
| Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic · Nuno Borges | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner · TEAM VISION | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$31.64 |
| Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B · BetBoom Team | 0.720 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.84 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$89.54at 0.500Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$86.97at 0.500Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$26.39at 0.500Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$21.87at 0.500Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?
- +$17.21at 0.500Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 08:02 | Will Lens win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | SELL | 0.997 | $10.49 |
| 10-20 08:01 | Celtic FC vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.48 | $4.99 |
| 10-20 08:01 | Will Lens win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | SELL | 0.997 | $31.47 |
| 10-20 08:01 | Celtic FC vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.48 | $19.20 |
| 10-20 08:00 | Will Lens win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | BUY | 0.998 | $42.00 |
| 09-08 02:42 | Counter-Strike: G2 vs Astralis (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A | BUY | 0.7 | $14.00 |
| 08-21 11:34 | Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | SELL | 0.998 | $14.97 |
| 08-21 11:34 | Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner | BUY | 0.61 | $31.64 |
| 08-21 11:31 | Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.01 |
| 08-08 03:17 | Will Mjallby AIF win on 2026-08-08? | BUY | 0.63 | $18.89 |
| 07-24 02:54 | Will Orlando Pride win on 2026-07-24? | BUY | 0.65 | $17.55 |
| 07-01 08:17 | Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.007 | $0.24 |
| 07-01 08:17 | Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02? | BUY | 0.53 | $12.46 |
| 07-01 08:15 | Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.992 | $34.72 |
| 06-11 09:20 | Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic | BUY | 0.5 | $20.00 |