0xC652B37b021eb64Eb95fE7dB0B1D4561bF5a11B1-1748123995820
0xc652b37b021eb64eb95fe7db0b1d4561bf5a11b1
- Realised P&L
- $719.74
- Volume
- $57.2k
- Markets traded
- 199
- Open portfolio
- $38.77
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded199
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · No | 0.667 | 0.147 | $22.13 | −$77.92 |
| AI bubble burst in 2026? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.097 | $9.70 | −$35.30 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.045 | $3.60 | −$31.60 |
| Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.034 | $3.35 | −$28.65 |
| Will AfD win at least 38% of all valid second votes? · No | 0.356 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$93.88 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$380.75at 0.119Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes?
- +$157.08at 0.106Iran strike on Qatar today?
- +$137.75at 0.410Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?
- +$116.50at 0.507Trump x Zelenskyy talk before July?
- +$103.50at 0.260Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 19:42 | Will AfD win at least 38% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.04 | $0.82 |
| 09-20 17:27 | Will AfD win at least 38% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.21 | $6.30 |
| 09-20 17:27 | Will AfD win at least 38% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.21 | $14.82 |
| 09-20 17:26 | Will AfD win at least 38% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.2 | $2.00 |
| 09-20 17:26 | Will AfD win at least 38% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.2 | $2.00 |
| 09-20 17:26 | Will AfD win at least 38% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.19 | $4.18 |
| 09-20 16:02 | Will AfD win at least 20% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.79 | $62.89 |
| 09-20 14:18 | Will AfD win at least 38% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.65 | $59.79 |
| 09-20 14:18 | Will AfD win at least 38% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.64 | $19.20 |
| 09-10 13:44 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.65 | $130.00 |
| 07-29 19:31 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.999 | $299.70 |
| 07-25 18:40 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.758 | $227.40 |
| 07-08 08:14 | Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | SELL | 0.997 | $4.53 |
| 04-13 06:45 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL | 0.989 | $148.35 |
| 04-08 14:57 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY | 0.66 | $99.00 |