0xC652B37b021eb64Eb95fE7dB0B1D4561bF5a11B1-1748123995820
0xc652b37b021eb64eb95fe7db0b1d4561bf5a11b1
- Realised P&L
- $573.18
- Volume
- $57.4k
- Markets traded
- 196
- Open portfolio
- $54.92
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded196
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · No | 0.667 | 0.158 | $23.63 | −$76.42 |
| AI bubble burst in 2026? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.178 | $17.80 | −$27.20 |
| Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.075 | $7.50 | −$24.50 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.075 | $6.00 | −$29.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$380.75at 0.119Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes?
- +$157.08at 0.106Iran strike on Qatar today?
- +$137.75at 0.410Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?
- +$116.50at 0.507Trump x Zelenskyy talk before July?
- +$103.50at 0.260Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-29 19:31 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.999 | $299.70 |
| 07-25 18:40 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.758 | $227.40 |
| 07-08 08:14 | Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | SELL | 0.997 | $4.53 |
| 04-13 06:45 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL | 0.989 | $148.35 |
| 04-08 14:57 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY | 0.66 | $99.00 |
| 03-14 15:53 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | BUY | 0.13 | $19.50 |
| 03-09 07:22 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? | BUY | 0.54 | $4.14 |
| 03-09 07:21 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? | BUY | 0.54 | $4.40 |
| 03-08 23:52 | Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | SELL | 0.981 | $97.05 |
| 03-08 21:45 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.667 | $100.05 |
| 03-08 21:44 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | SELL | 0.996 | $49.80 |
| 03-05 21:42 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March? | BUY | 0.002 | $4.00 |
| 03-03 20:46 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.841 | $42.05 |
| 03-03 20:45 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.8518953553 | $15.22 |
| 03-03 20:43 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | BUY | 0.688 | $34.40 |