carragher14
0xc61a0bb8fea66b6eececa620861df4612b838e82
- Realised P&L
- $-1.0k
- Volume
- $443.4k
- Markets traded
- 160
- Open portfolio
- $10.02
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded160
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration74.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)6.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.037 | 0.018 | $4.97 | −$4.97 |
| Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.029 | $2.85 | −$3.15 |
| Will XRP reach $3.80 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.028 | $2.20 | −$5.00 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.34 |
| Will XRP reach $2.40 in April? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.55 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.5kat 0.381Liberals win majority in Canadian election?
- +$1.1kat 0.253Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority?
- +$314.12at 0.122Will Ethereum reach $4600 in August?
- +$292.46at 0.047Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July?
- +$254.43at 0.103Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-04 16:38 | Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0359999933 | $5.00 |
| 04-23 11:49 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? | SELL | 0.003 | $3.06 |
| 04-17 17:44 | Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.06 | $6.00 |
| 04-17 17:09 | Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.038 | $4.94 |
| 04-16 15:53 | Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? | BUY | 0.004 | $3.08 |
| 04-16 15:52 | Will XRP reach $2.40 in April? | BUY | 0.009 | $1.54 |
| 04-16 15:51 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? | BUY | 0.003 | $2.83 |
| 03-04 13:07 | Will XRP reach $3.00 in March? | BUY | 0.0069627262 | $3.00 |
| 03-04 13:07 | Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? | BUY | 0.01 | $3.00 |
| 03-04 13:06 | Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? | BUY | 0.006 | $2.00 |
| 02-09 16:56 | Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in February? | BUY | 0.007 | $1.40 |
| 02-02 16:27 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? | BUY | 0.005 | $5.00 |
| 01-31 19:55 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? | SELL | 0.023 | $4.56 |
| 01-20 15:46 | Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? | SELL | 0.00334676 | $2.51 |
| 01-20 15:46 | Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? | SELL | 0.0042901951 | $5.42 |