davidlecea
0xc5c93ddf68782595de74d112efdd3ea62d392c4a
- Realised P&L
- $-218.90
- Volume
- $3.0k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $51.67
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration41.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration77.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.910 | 0.961 | $39.94 | +$2.12 |
| Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027? · Yes | 0.498 | 0.101 | $11.74 | −$46.38 |
| Astronomer Divorce Parlay · Yes | 0.098 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.87 |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31? · No | 0.669 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$292.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$52.70at 0.820Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31?
- +$23.77at 0.901Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025?
- +$20.09at 0.510Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025?
- +$11.86at 0.958Will Google have the top AI model on May 31?
- +$10.13at 0.946Will DeepSeek be #1 model before July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-04 16:23 | Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027? | BUY | 0.498 | $19.92 |
| 01-04 16:06 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | SELL | 0.975 | $41.92 |
| 12-07 14:08 | Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025? | SELL | 0.959 | $57.54 |
| 12-07 14:02 | Wealthfront IPO in 2025? | SELL | 0.018 | $0.15 |
| 07-18 09:39 | Astronomer Divorce Parlay | BUY | 0.0980825976 | $4.87 |
| 07-18 09:38 | Apple announces iPhone assembly in the U.S. before September? | SELL | 0.974 | $4.87 |
| 06-10 19:22 | Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? | BUY | 0.901 | $110.82 |
| 06-10 19:21 | Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025? | BUY | 0.85 | $51.00 |
| 06-10 19:10 | Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025? | BUY | 0.51 | $20.90 |
| 06-10 18:41 | Trump and Elon publicly reconcile by Friday? | SELL | 0.9 | $288.23 |
| 06-08 10:20 | Trump and Elon publicly reconcile by Friday? | BUY | 0.93 | $226.07 |
| 06-06 18:22 | Trump and Elon publicly reconcile by Friday? | BUY | 0.8 | $0.89 |
| 06-06 06:14 | Apple announces iPhone assembly in the U.S. before September? | BUY | 0.956 | $4.78 |
| 06-05 07:33 | Will DeepSeek be #1 model before July? | SELL | 0.9796739327 | $292.58 |
| 06-01 06:34 | Will DeepSeek be #1 model before July? | BUY | 0.9457629266 | $282.46 |