0xc54DD852Ab86e409C69667F6295780b753C88be1-1771136321154
0xc54dd852ab86e409c69667f6295780b753c88be1
- Realised P&L
- $4.6k
- Volume
- $177.2k
- Markets traded
- 165
- Open portfolio
- $125.03
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded165
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration94.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cambria FDV above $40M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.193 | 0.415 | $117.67 | +$62.87 |
| Cambria FDV above $200M one day after launch? · No | 0.982 | 0.984 | $4.92 | +$0.01 |
| Will BNB dip to $400 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.305 | $2.44 | −$3.96 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.2kat 0.564Will there be at least 1,100 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?
- +$935.86at 0.384AWS service disrupted by March 31?
- +$929.62at 0.518U.S. strike on Somalia by February 28?
- +$598.20at 0.367AWS service disrupted by March 31?
- +$590.57at 0.558ChatGPT Outage by February 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-13 07:35 | Cambria FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.982 | $4.91 |
| 05-28 22:42 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET | BUY | 0.1135836581 | $100.00 |
| 05-28 22:42 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET | BUY | 0.1036572404 | $96.55 |
| 05-28 20:07 | Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | SELL | 0.8241472524 | $399.39 |
| 05-13 09:12 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? | BUY | 0.36 | $1.80 |
| 05-13 09:12 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? | BUY | 0.36 | $1.80 |
| 05-13 09:12 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? | BUY | 0.36 | $1.80 |
| 05-13 09:12 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? | BUY | 0.36 | $1.80 |
| 05-13 09:12 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? | BUY | 0.36 | $1.80 |
| 05-08 08:10 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? | BUY | 0.31 | $1.55 |
| 05-08 07:46 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? | BUY | 0.31 | $1.55 |
| 05-08 07:46 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? | BUY | 0.31 | $1.55 |
| 05-08 07:46 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? | BUY | 0.31 | $1.55 |
| 05-08 07:46 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? | BUY | 0.31 | $1.55 |
| 05-08 07:45 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? | BUY | 0.31 | $1.55 |