crojasa19
0xc54226931ddb1f99a9461226811e70f214463d66
- Realised P&L
- $-18.52
- Volume
- $1.9k
- Markets traded
- 40
- Open portfolio
- $26.58
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded40
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample35 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.643 | 0.406 | $7.08 | −$4.12 |
| Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by December 31? · Yes | 0.810 | 0.925 | $6.11 | +$0.76 |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? · No | 0.830 | 0.835 | $5.38 | +$0.03 |
| Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.215 | $3.88 | −$1.72 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.175 | $2.79 | −$2.31 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.185 | $1.34 | −$4.01 |
| Trump renames AI by September 30? · No | 0.308 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.48 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.51at 0.284Will Solana reach $140 by December 31, 2026?
- +$3.06at 0.627Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$2.60at 0.906Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET
- +$2.19at 0.710Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$1.85at 0.734Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 13:44 | Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | SELL | 0.81 | $17.33 |
| 10-12 14:33 | Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.8 | $6.68 |
| 10-03 02:44 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.79 | $10.90 |
| 10-03 02:44 | Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | SELL | 0.72 | $12.07 |
| 09-29 14:59 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | BUY | 0.2935363243 | $5.00 |
| 09-29 14:54 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | SELL | 0.19 | $2.87 |
| 09-29 14:15 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | SELL | 0.37 | $3.63 |
| 09-29 14:15 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | BUY | 0.629999995 | $10.00 |
| 09-29 08:22 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | BUY | 0.5099999776 | $5.00 |
| 09-28 20:13 | Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999894 | $5.20 |
| 09-25 20:06 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | SELL | 0.35 | $6.04 |
| 09-25 19:55 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | SELL | 0.22 | $0.48 |
| 09-25 19:52 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | SELL | 0.21 | $2.10 |
| 09-24 16:31 | Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | BUY | 0.5799999957 | $5.35 |
| 09-24 15:08 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.48 | $5.85 |