PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

EstesSchnauzer45209

0xc541d5d3670cd38127b838bb04d87c7f69a96bc1

Realised P&L
$-66.50
Volume
$3.6k
Markets traded
53
Open portfolio
$26.59

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded53
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration35.8% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample43 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)30.2%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration26.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0420.060$7.14+$2.14
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? · Yes0.7001.000$7.14+$2.14
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No0.8300.958$5.77+$0.77
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0170.011$3.09$1.91
Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027? · Yes0.3810.095$1.25$3.75
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0080.002$0.94$4.06
Stripe IPO before 2027? · Yes0.3300.046$0.70$4.30
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0080.001$0.31$4.69
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0100.001$0.25$4.75
SpaceX goes public through Bill Ackman "SPAR" company? · Yes0.0770.000$0.00$5.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
03-30 01:36Will any Minnesota politician be charged with fraud by March 31?BUY0.0062992126$1.00
03-09 11:10Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?BUY0.32$5.00
03-06 04:40US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?BUY0.699999972$5.00
03-06 04:38Will Khamenei tweet again by March 7?BUY0.4413408467$5.00
02-27 20:50Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY0.042$5.00
02-27 20:49Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.017$5.00
02-27 20:43Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?BUY0.699999972$5.00
02-27 07:07Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?BUY0.8299999967$5.00
02-27 07:04Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 15?BUY0.1875838946$5.00
02-27 07:01Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?BUY0.699999972$5.00
02-09 12:07Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?BUY0.549999956$5.00
02-07 06:06SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?SELL0.83$5.60
02-07 06:01SpaceX goes public through Bill Ackman "SPAR" company?BUY0.0769541546$5.00
01-31 17:44Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February?BUY0.5899999705$5.00
01-15 17:33Will any Minnesota politician be charged with fraud by March 31?BUY0.149999976$5.00