EstesSchnauzer45209
0xc541d5d3670cd38127b838bb04d87c7f69a96bc1
- Realised P&L
- $-66.50
- Volume
- $3.6k
- Markets traded
- 53
- Open portfolio
- $26.59
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded53
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample43 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.042 | 0.060 | $7.14 | +$2.14 |
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.700 | 1.000 | $7.14 | +$2.14 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.830 | 0.958 | $5.77 | +$0.77 |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.011 | $3.09 | −$1.91 |
| Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027? · Yes | 0.381 | 0.095 | $1.25 | −$3.75 |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.002 | $0.94 | −$4.06 |
| Stripe IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.046 | $0.70 | −$4.30 |
| Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.001 | $0.31 | −$4.69 |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.001 | $0.25 | −$4.75 |
| SpaceX goes public through Bill Ackman "SPAR" company? · Yes | 0.077 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$40.45at 0.110Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 9?
- +$28.33at 0.150Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025?
- +$19.67at 0.203Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?
- +$7.85at 0.060Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025?
- +$3.62at 0.580Pelosi vs. S&P - January
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-30 01:36 | Will any Minnesota politician be charged with fraud by March 31? | BUY | 0.0062992126 | $1.00 |
| 03-09 11:10 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? | BUY | 0.32 | $5.00 |
| 03-06 04:40 | US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | BUY | 0.699999972 | $5.00 |
| 03-06 04:38 | Will Khamenei tweet again by March 7? | BUY | 0.4413408467 | $5.00 |
| 02-27 20:50 | Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.042 | $5.00 |
| 02-27 20:49 | Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.017 | $5.00 |
| 02-27 20:43 | Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.699999972 | $5.00 |
| 02-27 07:07 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.8299999967 | $5.00 |
| 02-27 07:04 | Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 15? | BUY | 0.1875838946 | $5.00 |
| 02-27 07:01 | Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | BUY | 0.699999972 | $5.00 |
| 02-09 12:07 | Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? | BUY | 0.549999956 | $5.00 |
| 02-07 06:06 | SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.83 | $5.60 |
| 02-07 06:01 | SpaceX goes public through Bill Ackman "SPAR" company? | BUY | 0.0769541546 | $5.00 |
| 01-31 17:44 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? | BUY | 0.5899999705 | $5.00 |
| 01-15 17:33 | Will any Minnesota politician be charged with fraud by March 31? | BUY | 0.149999976 | $5.00 |