sokil23
0xc53aff5fe98c6904c84706be2d5d6a93bb2765f8
- Realised P&L
- $-319.87
- Volume
- $6.6k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $133.15
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration58.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration76.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? · Yes | 0.266 | 0.135 | $101.64 | −$98.36 |
| Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.840 | $22.40 | +$2.40 |
| Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.765 | $9.11 | +$4.11 |
| Will Russia enter Borova by September 30? · Yes | 0.111 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$58.31 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$66.67at 0.750Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
- +$32.02at 0.862Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
- +$10.53at 0.950Will Russia enter Stinky by August 31?
- +$4.25at 0.950Will Russia capture Toretske by September 30, 2026?
- +$-45.50at 0.555Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 18:22 | Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? | BUY | 0.2656454074 | $200.00 |
| 09-29 20:26 | Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.6820833333 | $163.70 |
| 09-29 20:26 | Will Russia enter Borova by September 30? | SELL | 0.0083203879 | $10.61 |
| 09-23 22:57 | Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $200.00 |
| 09-23 22:57 | Will Russia enter Borova by September 30? | BUY | 0.1110745583 | $200.00 |
| 09-01 14:45 | Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31? | SELL | 0.4290253249 | $154.50 |
| 09-01 14:44 | Will Russia capture Vodianske by September 30? | SELL | 0.1127233115 | $24.84 |
| 09-01 14:43 | Will Russia capture Toretske by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.9701646399 | $204.24 |
| 08-23 18:19 | Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31? | BUY | 0.555370161 | $200.00 |
| 08-23 18:19 | Will Russia capture Vodianske by September 30? | BUY | 0.907730673 | $200.00 |
| 08-23 18:19 | Will Russia capture Toretske by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9499999986 | $200.00 |
| 08-18 18:04 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8619999994 | $200.00 |
| 08-18 18:04 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? | BUY | 0.75 | $200.00 |
| 08-11 14:06 | Will Russia enter Stinky by August 31? | BUY | 0.9499999986 | $200.00 |
| 07-23 12:39 | Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31? | BUY | 0.4199999832 | $5.00 |