paulqb00
0xc4e296a96daaeede689f045b6e52af46b6279d8e
- Realised P&L
- $-12.13
- Volume
- $631.28
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $105.94
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration91.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.745 | 0.885 | $35.40 | +$5.60 |
| Will Together win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · No | 0.750 | 0.865 | $34.60 | +$4.60 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.45% in October? · No | 0.720 | 0.960 | $19.20 | +$4.80 |
| Will The Democrats win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.300 | $12.00 | −$8.40 |
| Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.595 | $4.16 | −$0.39 |
| Will NYC have less than 3 inches of precipitation in October? · No | 0.680 | 0.085 | $0.58 | −$4.07 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.40at 0.447SSI public model released by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.20at 0.586Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.20at 0.400US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?
- +$0.00at 0.570Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
- +$-0.10at 0.410Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 09:27 | Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by October 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.67 | $13.40 |
| 10-11 16:13 | Saudi troops enter Taiz Governorate by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.12 | $0.60 |
| 10-11 16:13 | Saudi troops enter Taiz Governorate by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.12 | $2.40 |
| 10-10 18:12 | Saudi troops enter Taiz Governorate by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.18 | $2.70 |
| 10-08 19:22 | SSI public model released by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.35 | $7.00 |
| 10-08 19:21 | Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.4 | $3.96 |
| 10-08 19:21 | Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.61 | $5.12 |
| 10-08 19:21 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | SELL | 0.41 | $8.20 |
| 10-08 19:21 | Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.57 | $11.40 |
| 10-08 19:21 | SSI public model released by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.5372181818 | $29.55 |