mayona
0xc4d82a0598dba49fd4d0e958dc66fbd25d334602
- Realised P&L
- $-44.73
- Volume
- $885.63
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $10.95
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration79.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)16.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration89.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.195 | $9.75 | +$1.75 |
| Epstein client list released by June 30? · No | 0.830 | 1.000 | $1.20 | +$0.20 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? · No | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.96at 0.968Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
- +$0.25at 0.780Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 3?
- +$0.00at 0.500Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?
- +$0.00at 0.500Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?
- +$-0.09at 0.430Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-09 14:27 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.8299999975 | $20.00 |
| 01-22 14:08 | Will Mike McCoy be fired by February 28? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.06 |
| 01-18 14:13 | US government shutdown Saturday? | BUY | 0.8099999931 | $20.00 |
| 01-18 12:42 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.41 | $1.91 |
| 01-16 14:54 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999505 | $2.00 |
| 01-16 14:53 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.5799997332 | $2.00 |
| 01-08 14:13 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | SELL | 0.013 | $0.60 |
| 01-07 15:09 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | BUY | 0.021 | $0.97 |
| 01-07 14:57 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | BUY | 0.968 | $29.04 |
| 01-06 15:32 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | SELL | 0.09 | $18.00 |
| 01-06 15:32 | US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $15.00 |
| 01-06 15:30 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | BUY | 0.1 | $20.00 |
| 01-06 15:19 | US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.17 | $17.00 |
| 01-03 10:02 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 3? | SELL | 0.975 | $1.25 |
| 01-03 08:02 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 3? | SELL | 0.037 | $0.15 |