0xc4b3e2197e454543fc90b59fb611adbfa879f3f4
- Realised P&L
- $42.76
- Volume
- $153.00
- Markets traded
- 4
- Open portfolio
- $43.84
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar27.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded4
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.685 | $43.84 | +$29.76 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$27.50at 0.500Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
- +$-0.03at 0.894Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?
- +$-0.07at 0.937Modi out by December 31, 2026?
- +$-15.10at 0.500Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-16 10:23 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.89 | $7.12 |
| 06-19 05:42 | Modi out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.935 | $8.42 |
| 03-24 16:03 | OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? | BUY | 0.22 | $14.08 |