hnkl
0xc4a4dcedd71e18a7bc7359e6cc1e9030717ffdc1
- Realised P&L
- $-385.25
- Volume
- $20.0k
- Markets traded
- 65
- Open portfolio
- $23.24
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded65
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration61.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31? · OpenAI | 0.650 | 0.155 | $14.31 | −$45.69 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.089 | 0.080 | $8.93 | −$1.07 |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance · France | 0.562 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Portugal vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score · Yes | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping? · Yes | 0.355 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$300.00 |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$710.00 |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
| Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? · Yes | 0.277 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$160.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$259.52at 0.577Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03?
- +$142.31at 0.587Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02?
- +$124.19at 0.740Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04?
- +$89.34at 0.527Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19?
- +$84.56at 0.922Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-27 21:29 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0889999923 | $10.00 |
| 07-19 19:15 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.397 | $42.23 |
| 07-19 19:01 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | SELL | 0.5825 | $19.91 |
| 07-19 19:01 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5849999911 | $20.00 |
| 07-15 18:37 | England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.4624999902 | $20.00 |
| 07-14 18:51 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.372 | $100.54 |
| 07-14 18:51 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.23 | $27.54 |
| 07-14 18:49 | France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5624999965 | $20.00 |
| 07-10 20:47 | Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.6974999971 | $30.00 |
| 07-10 19:02 | Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | BUY | 0.6 | $30.00 |
| 07-07 07:24 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1879999936 | $20.00 |
| 07-06 19:14 | Portugal vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score | BUY | 0.5799999861 | $10.00 |
| 07-06 19:11 | Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.6199999975 | $50.00 |
| 06-27 22:39 | Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? | BUY | 0.6099999927 | $20.00 |
| 06-27 22:38 | Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | SELL | 0.26 | $25.00 |