0xc49a9571f152b3fc98816c51296eb40b82f06bfe
0xc49a9571f152b3fc98816c51296eb40b82f06bfe
- Realised P&L
- $2.19
- Volume
- $161.63
- Markets traded
- 71
- Open portfolio
- $6.19
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded71
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 9? · Up | 0.750 | 1.000 | $1.33 | +$0.33 |
| Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $154 Week of October 5 2026? · No | 0.770 | 1.000 | $1.30 | +$0.30 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on October 8? · Yes | 0.800 | 1.000 | $1.25 | +$0.25 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.395 | $1.23 | +$0.23 |
| Gemini Argon released by October 14, 2026? · No | 0.520 | 0.530 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.022 | $0.05 | −$0.95 |
| Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $190 Week of October 5 2026? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 Week of October 5 2026? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $195 Week of October 5 2026? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.32at 0.237Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during September Press Conference?
- +$2.97at 0.258Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of September 28 2026?
- +$2.54at 0.288Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $330 Week of August 17 2026?
- +$2.54at 0.288Trump renames AI by September 30?
- +$2.31at 0.308Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 04:44 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 9? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 20:25 | Gemini Argon released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 08:31 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 00:31 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $775 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 16:24 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $190 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 16:21 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.4899998383 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 04:51 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 7? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 20:50 | Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $154 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 12:49 | Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.30 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 04:42 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 15:12 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $195 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 00:42 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $190 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 12:54 | Israel military action against Lebanon on October 8? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 03:02 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 12:26 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 1? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |