SecondLevel
0xc48b497fb7b970d275673507ced379a1fb322413
- Realised P&L
- $15.30
- Volume
- $4.1k
- Markets traded
- 29
- Open portfolio
- $152.63
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded29
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.865 | $86.50 | +$6.50 |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.445 | $22.25 | +$15.75 |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? · No | 0.290 | 0.435 | $15.22 | +$5.08 |
| Will the Houston Texans win more than 9.5 games in the 2026 NFL Regular Season? · O 9.5 | 0.620 | 0.390 | $13.65 | −$8.05 |
| Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.014 | 0.007 | $6.75 | −$5.55 |
| Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.021 | $4.30 | −$1.70 |
| Will the Philadelphia Eagles win more than 10.5 games in the 2026 NFL Regular Season? · O 10.5 | 0.500 | 0.145 | $2.90 | −$7.10 |
| Will Fjord win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.011 | $1.05 | −$7.95 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.206 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.30 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$42.52at 0.030Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026?
- +$29.45at 0.744Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
- +$17.62at 0.630Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?
- +$16.48at 0.176Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?
- +$11.76at 0.680Will Tadej Pogacar win the Tour de France 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-09 03:01 | Will the Philadelphia Eagles win more than 10.5 games in the 2026 NFL Regular Season? | BUY | 0.5 | $10.00 |
| 09-09 02:59 | Will the Houston Texans win more than 9.5 games in the 2026 NFL Regular Season? | BUY | 0.62 | $21.70 |
| 07-28 21:04 | Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.8 | $59.42 |
| 07-28 21:02 | Will Fjord win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.09 | $9.00 |
| 07-24 13:30 | Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | BUY | 0.29 | $10.15 |
| 07-13 13:27 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.215 | $6.45 |
| 07-13 13:27 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.208 | $10.40 |
| 07-07 14:16 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | BUY | 0.74 | $14.80 |
| 07-07 14:15 | Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.75 | $52.50 |
| 07-03 13:56 | Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27? | SELL | 0.176770077 | $17.68 |
| 06-28 14:33 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.206 | $10.30 |
| 06-28 14:31 | Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.12 |
| 06-22 20:20 | Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.1 | $3.00 |
| 06-22 20:11 | Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? | SELL | 0.0990280009 | $8.63 |
| 06-22 20:08 | Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.996584 | $39.86 |