Apx
0xc4827bdd29dc77591f1fa4fc5492e263fed2a6cd
- Realised P&L
- $-78.75
- Volume
- $13.3k
- Markets traded
- 146
- Open portfolio
- $17.14
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded146
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dragan Đilas be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? · No | 0.999 | 0.998 | $12.69 | −$0.01 |
| Sam Houston vs. Liberty · Sam Houston | 0.170 | 0.165 | $4.46 | −$0.13 |
| Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? · No | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.90 |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.50 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will Solana reach $220 October 27-November 2? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.76at 0.918Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?
- +$5.34at 0.709Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?
- +$4.77at 0.958Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?
- +$3.86at 0.971Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 5, 2026?
- +$3.71at 0.968Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-07 09:39 | Will Dragan Đilas be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? | BUY | 0.9986013211 | $12.70 |
| 10-07 09:35 | Sam Houston vs. Liberty | BUY | 0.17 | $4.59 |
| 09-11 08:26 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.995999938 | $14.20 |
| 09-11 08:16 | Houthis seize an oil tanker by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $2.64 |
| 08-29 13:13 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $17.00 |
| 07-25 08:05 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $16.90 |
| 06-07 07:54 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $136.00 |
| 06-07 03:50 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.988 | $134.00 |
| 06-04 08:09 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.9699999963 | $130.00 |
| 06-03 07:50 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.9140407376 | $119.86 |
| 05-29 02:23 | Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | BUY | 0.9839999999 | $118.00 |
| 05-24 10:46 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.9878545235 | $117.00 |
| 05-22 06:32 | Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets in May 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $117.00 |
| 05-16 10:34 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? | BUY | 0.9666873236 | $113.00 |
| 05-15 06:06 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.9769999998 | $110.00 |