Alexmanman
0xc47e5391ad876cab70ec9cda17ed4b14870c6cac
- Realised P&L
- $-35.75
- Volume
- $4.3k
- Markets traded
- 66
- Open portfolio
- $34.45
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded66
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample28 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)85.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$48.41at 0.097Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on September 19?
- +$34.48at 0.229Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$10.92at 0.321Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 22?
- +$8.73at 0.371Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 5?
- +$8.42at 0.377Knicks vs. Spurs
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 12:42 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 24? | BUY | 0.95 | $5.00 |
| 09-23 12:42 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 24? | BUY | 0.3168316832 | $5.00 |
| 09-23 12:41 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 24? | BUY | 0.449999964 | $5.00 |
| 09-23 12:41 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on September 24? | BUY | 0.8199999967 | $5.00 |
| 09-22 23:58 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 23? | BUY | 0.3564356379 | $5.00 |
| 09-22 23:58 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 23? | BUY | 0.382848392 | $5.00 |
| 09-19 12:35 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on September 19? | SELL | 0.998 | $53.64 |
| 09-18 06:17 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.4594150452 | $5.00 |
| 09-18 06:17 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.0930189294 | $5.00 |
| 09-18 06:16 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.9 | $5.00 |
| 08-04 09:44 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.8 | $5.00 |
| 08-04 09:44 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.9031182187 | $5.00 |
| 08-04 09:43 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.4599999595 | $5.00 |
| 08-04 09:42 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.8699999983 | $5.00 |
| 08-04 09:42 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.359999977 | $5.00 |