0xc472d8bf6295788507a84c9e132d8b6778e4a8b4
0xc472d8bf6295788507a84c9e132d8b6778e4a8b4
- Realised P&L
- $5.55
- Volume
- $265.28
- Markets traded
- 66
- Open portfolio
- $8.63
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded66
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.265 | $2.41 | +$0.41 |
| Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $78 Week of September 21 2026? · No | 0.770 | 0.785 | $2.04 | +$0.04 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No | 0.780 | 0.986 | $2.00 | +$0.42 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.165 | $1.38 | −$0.62 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.325 | $0.81 | −$1.19 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.92at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?
- +$5.07at 0.290Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?
- +$3.65at 0.361Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$2.88at 0.410Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9?
- +$2.72at 0.430WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on August 4?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 23:49 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $78 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |
| 09-20 03:34 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 05:11 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 20:59 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 08:38 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 07:31 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $66 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 23:12 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.5499998382 | $1.19 |
| 09-16 15:10 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 06:48 | Will Warsh say "Scenario" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.4599999034 | $2.00 |
| 09-15 22:47 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |
| 09-13 11:43 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 09-13 02:39 | Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? | BUY | 0.7299999087 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 12:21 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.4899999584 | $2.00 |
| 09-10 15:54 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.6299999181 | $2.00 |
| 09-10 15:52 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.419999979 | $2.00 |