FrostCarpenter
0xc4706925d7a941ac1868910abf0fffc08c4af3ca
- Realised P&L
- $0.60
- Volume
- $5.0k
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $357.00
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration79.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample23 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.595 | $357.00 | −$3.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.27at 0.038Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
- +$0.06at 0.996Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 17?
- +$0.05at 0.810Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
- +$0.04at 0.997Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 5?
- +$0.02at 0.998Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 2?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-21 11:36 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 21? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.45 |
| 04-17 11:04 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 17? | BUY | 0.9989999814 | $10.79 |
| 04-05 08:54 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 5? | BUY | 0.9969999999 | $13.53 |
| 04-03 09:56 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 3? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.16 |
| 04-02 07:34 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 2? | BUY | 0.998 | $11.26 |
| 04-01 07:39 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 1? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.66 |
| 03-31 10:22 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 31? | BUY | 0.9989999257 | $10.23 |
| 03-30 09:02 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 30? | BUY | 0.9989999745 | $13.64 |
| 03-27 07:31 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 27? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.26 |
| 03-26 06:48 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 26? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.98 |
| 03-25 08:50 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 25? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.23 |
| 03-24 08:47 | Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,900 on March 24? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.01 |
| 03-19 11:04 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 19? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.98 |
| 03-18 09:22 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 18? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.08 |
| 03-17 10:08 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 17? | BUY | 0.996 | $14.67 |