0xc437c766260b2d764bb1ddf39fc517ac870981fe
- Realised P&L
- not known
- Volume
- not known
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $11.74
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- Not knownEdge per dollar—
- No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration71.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027? · Yes | 0.104 | 0.060 | $11.74 | −$8.57 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.61at 0.610Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
- +$2.20at 0.146Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
- +$-0.38at 0.904Will Cristopher Sanchez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?
- +$-3.90at 0.036Will Parker Messick win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?
- +$-4.81at 0.145Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-26 01:00 | Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027? | BUY | 0.1037649087 | $20.31 |
| 09-14 12:18 | Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? | SELL | 0.092 | $7.88 |
| 08-27 12:41 | Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.204 | $0.02 |
| 08-27 12:41 | Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | SELL | 0.68 | $0.29 |
| 08-27 12:35 | Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | SELL | 0.68 | $5.44 |
| 08-24 13:47 | Will Parker Messick win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? | SELL | 0.0203367145 | $4.83 |
| 08-24 13:46 | Will Parker Messick win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? | BUY | 0.035143473 | $8.35 |
| 08-21 13:13 | Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | SELL | 0.65 | $39.00 |
| 08-21 13:12 | Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | SELL | 0.655 | $6.55 |
| 08-21 05:26 | Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | SELL | 0.662 | $13.24 |
| 08-21 05:23 | Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | SELL | 0.679 | $6.79 |
| 08-21 05:22 | Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | SELL | 0.68 | $6.80 |
| 08-21 05:21 | Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | SELL | 0.681 | $8.17 |
| 08-20 21:50 | Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | BUY | 0.5999999985 | $78.26 |
| 08-19 01:17 | Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.169 | $1.18 |