0xc431f214899b4375407cef2658ed67bb15635f6c-1792429756133
0xc431f214899b4375407cef2658ed67bb15635f6c
- Realised P&L
- $-1.26
- Volume
- $2.1k
- Markets traded
- 35
- Open portfolio
- $20.63
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded35
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration80.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walmart (WMT) Q3 US comp sales (ex-fuel) growth 2.5% to 4%? · No | 0.370 | 0.410 | $16.62 | +$1.62 |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? · No | 0.240 | 0.056 | $3.47 | −$11.53 |
| Will Miloš Vučević win the next Serbia presidential election? · Yes | 0.235 | 0.009 | $0.54 | −$14.46 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$25.63at 0.250Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH?
- +$17.72at 0.230Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?
- +$16.37at 0.500Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by March 31, 2027?
- +$10.00at 0.300Venezuela election scheduled by March 31, 2027?
- +$6.73at 0.652Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 02:38 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET | BUY | 0.95 | $4.99 |
| 11-02 02:38 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET | BUY | 0.9219999996 | $4.99 |
| 11-02 02:38 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET | BUY | 0.9269999972 | $4.99 |
| 11-02 02:38 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET | BUY | 0.94 | $4.99 |
| 11-02 01:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET | BUY | 0.8699999762 | $4.39 |
| 11-02 01:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET | BUY | 0.8599999897 | $4.99 |
| 11-02 01:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET | BUY | 0.849999983 | $4.99 |
| 11-01 23:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET | BUY | 0.8699999826 | $4.99 |
| 11-01 23:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET | BUY | 0.8699998762 | $4.99 |
| 11-01 23:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET | BUY | 0.8699998762 | $4.99 |
| 11-01 23:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET | BUY | 0.8699998762 | $4.99 |
| 11-01 22:44 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET | BUY | 0.94 | $4.99 |
| 11-01 22:44 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET | BUY | 0.94 | $4.99 |
| 11-01 22:44 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET | BUY | 0.9099999982 | $4.99 |
| 11-01 22:08 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET | BUY | 0.94 | $4.99 |