MountainPassMustangs
0xc41bcf9617240f21c6184fcd4c8e396f5c1e75ae
- Realised P&L
- $-220.19
- Volume
- $11.4k
- Markets traded
- 144
- Open portfolio
- $110.51
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded144
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration72.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$104.41at 0.447Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 70°F or higher on April 28?
- +$28.59at 0.428Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 17?
- +$20.99at 0.300Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 19?
- +$19.02at 0.620Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
- +$18.93at 0.320Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 14:08 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 HI-02 House election by 30%-35%? | BUY | 0.117 | $9.30 |
| 09-14 14:07 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 HI-02 House election by 25%-30%? | BUY | 0.062 | $2.08 |
| 09-14 13:45 | Will the Democratic Party win the HI-02 House seat? | BUY | 0.05 | $5.00 |
| 09-14 13:43 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 HI-02 House election by 0%-10%? | BUY | 0.0088666773 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 13:43 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 HI-02 House election by 10%-20%? | BUY | 0.0143626983 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 13:43 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 HI-02 House election by 20%-25%? | BUY | 0.013559322 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 13:42 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 HI-02 House election by 25%-30%? | BUY | 0.0255628303 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 13:40 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 HI-02 House election by 30%-35%? | BUY | 0.093 | $0.56 |
| 09-08 23:34 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-15 House election by 35%-45%? | BUY | 0.634 | $63.40 |
| 09-08 23:29 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AR-03 House election by 0%-10%? | SELL | 0.79 | $57.67 |
| 09-08 20:11 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AR-03 House election by 0%-10%? | SELL | 0.77 | $7.21 |
| 09-08 20:11 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AR-03 House election by 0%-10%? | SELL | 0.76 | $30.40 |
| 09-08 17:30 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AR-03 House election by 0%-10%? | SELL | 0.8291766667 | $24.88 |
| 09-08 07:06 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from North Carolina be less than 3,500,000? | BUY | 0.0091057 | $0.91 |
| 09-08 07:05 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from North Carolina be between 3,500,000 and 3,700,000? | BUY | 0.0191298533 | $1.47 |