0xc419c48d15769140786fe3849087615d4615643e
0xc419c48d15769140786fe3849087615d4615643e
- Realised P&L
- $-4.10
- Volume
- $212.62
- Markets traded
- 67
- Open portfolio
- $2.30
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded67
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration9.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $68 Week of October 5 2026? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.330 | $1.22 | +$0.22 |
| Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of October 5 2026? · No | 0.610 | 0.660 | $1.08 | +$0.08 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.17at 0.320US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
- +$2.65at 0.360Will Iran target an Arab country by August 31, 2026?
- +$2.61at 0.369Will Warsh say "Framework" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?
- +$2.54at 0.370US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
- +$2.50at 0.379SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 10?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 14:41 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 00:51 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $68 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 03:15 | Will Trump name an AI czar by October 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 18:43 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in September? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 10:41 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in September? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 02:09 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 22:53 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,250 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.49 |
| 09-21 14:51 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $117.50 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.4799999485 | $1.49 |
| 09-21 06:50 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $177.50 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.04 |
| 09-21 06:10 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $207.50 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.4699999653 | $1.49 |
| 09-20 22:09 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $960 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.5599998497 | $1.49 |
| 09-20 04:01 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999764 | $1.49 |
| 09-19 07:13 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.3699999106 | $1.49 |
| 09-16 02:19 | Will Trump say "Make America Healthy Again" during his remarks in North Carolina? | BUY | 0.3699999106 | $1.49 |
| 09-15 17:28 | Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.4299999105 | $1.49 |