0xc40320ef057d6e21c0595c15C3492e06E54c546F-1768317471556
0xc40320ef057d6e21c0595c15c3492e06e54c546f
- Realised P&L
- $-963.92
- Volume
- $56.2k
- Markets traded
- 78
- Open portfolio
- $1.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded78
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration96.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHEIN IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.828 | 0.913 | $1.3k | +$124.16 |
| US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? · Yes | 0.118 | 0.130 | $55.22 | +$5.22 |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Spain O/U 0.5 · Over | 0.760 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 5.5 · Over | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 14? · No | 0.944 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET · Down | 0.920 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$152.29at 0.690Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$146.12at 0.768Will Trump visit China by May 31?
- +$75.00at 0.800Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5
- +$59.19at 0.922Will Trump visit China by May 15?
- +$54.82at 0.994Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-30 03:44 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET | BUY | 0.92 | $100.00 |
| 07-25 05:50 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 24? | SELL | 0.999 | $210.52 |
| 07-25 05:50 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 25? | SELL | 0.999 | $208.12 |
| 07-24 05:10 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 25? | BUY | 0.96 | $200.00 |
| 07-23 07:13 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 24? | BUY | 0.9490770711 | $200.00 |
| 07-23 07:11 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 23? | SELL | 0.999 | $116.02 |
| 07-22 10:32 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 22? | SELL | 0.999 | $207.73 |
| 07-22 10:31 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 22? | SELL | 0.998 | $104.87 |
| 07-22 10:31 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 23? | BUY | 0.8609871859 | $100.00 |
| 07-22 07:24 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 22? | BUY | 0.9516269007 | $100.00 |
| 07-22 00:15 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 22? | BUY | 0.9617968339 | $200.00 |
| 07-21 09:54 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET | BUY | 0.8532609438 | $100.00 |
| 07-20 15:41 | US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? | BUY | 0.1177110231 | $50.00 |
| 07-19 14:53 | Spain vs. Argentina: Spain O/U 0.5 | BUY | 0.759999997 | $50.00 |
| 07-14 13:09 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET | BUY | 0.9201816604 | $100.00 |