0xc40320ef057d6e21c0595c15C3492e06E54c546F-1768317471556
0xc40320ef057d6e21c0595c15c3492e06e54c546f
- Realised P&L
- $-907.88
- Volume
- $57.9k
- Markets traded
- 86
- Open portfolio
- $599.02
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded86
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration87.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ByteDance IPO before 2027? · No | 0.921 | 0.971 | $526.81 | +$26.81 |
| US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? · Yes | 0.118 | 0.170 | $72.21 | +$22.21 |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Spain O/U 0.5 · Over | 0.760 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 5.5 · Over | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 14? · No | 0.944 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET · Down | 0.920 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$241.38at 0.833SHEIN IPO before 2027?
- +$152.29at 0.690Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$145.92at 0.768Will Trump visit China by May 31?
- +$75.00at 0.800Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5
- +$56.51at 0.924Will Trump visit China by May 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-07 05:25 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 7? | SELL | 0.2136571608 | $13.64 |
| 09-07 05:24 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 7? | BUY | 0.8662235794 | $100.00 |
| 09-07 03:14 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24? | BUY | 0.88 | $50.00 |
| 09-07 03:10 | Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,300? | BUY | 0.8499999983 | $50.00 |
| 09-07 03:07 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 7? | BUY | 0.9399999997 | $60.00 |
| 09-07 03:04 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30? | SELL | 0.07 | $21.00 |
| 09-02 08:20 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30? | BUY | 0.1 | $30.00 |
| 08-21 01:07 | ByteDance IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.9211107287 | $500.00 |
| 08-12 17:53 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 13? | BUY | 0.828343312 | $80.00 |
| 08-08 23:14 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 9? | BUY | 0.866533864 | $50.00 |
| 07-30 03:44 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET | BUY | 0.92 | $100.00 |
| 07-25 05:50 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 24? | SELL | 0.999 | $210.52 |
| 07-25 05:50 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 25? | SELL | 0.999 | $208.12 |
| 07-24 05:10 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 25? | BUY | 0.96 | $200.00 |
| 07-23 07:13 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 24? | BUY | 0.9490770711 | $200.00 |