oceanmist79
0xc401fdf872a9c93e06a9b332987a887f1d698b2c
- Realised P&L
- $-12.1k
- Volume
- $189.4k
- Markets traded
- 29
- Open portfolio
- $12.4k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded29
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration52.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)59.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration87.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.685 | 0.920 | $10.8k | +$2.8k |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.023 | 0.025 | $1.1k | +$64.39 |
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.560 | $546.59 | −$292.91 |
| Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.007 | $1.22 | −$1.75 |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? · No | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$328.27 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.50 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.7kat 0.441Biden drops out of presidential race?
- +$967.65at 0.819Claude 4.8 released by May 31?
- +$694.43at 0.877Claude 4.7 released by April 17?
- +$615.86at 0.219Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?
- +$440.76at 0.261Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-25 02:25 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.05 | $1.00 |
| 06-25 02:25 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.05 | $1.00 |
| 06-24 16:21 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.05 | $1.00 |
| 06-24 16:20 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.23 | $2.30 |
| 06-24 16:20 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.23 | $2.30 |
| 06-24 16:20 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.23 | $2.30 |
| 06-24 16:20 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.23 | $2.30 |
| 06-24 16:20 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.23 | $2.30 |
| 06-24 16:17 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? | BUY | 0.26 | $328.28 |
| 06-24 16:17 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | SELL | 0.2379524754 | $229.12 |
| 06-24 16:17 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | SELL | 0.25 | $121.75 |
| 06-24 01:53 | Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.023 | $1.38 |
| 06-24 01:53 | Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.023 | $2.30 |
| 06-24 01:53 | Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.023 | $11.50 |
| 06-24 01:52 | Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.023 | $11.50 |