Cheerfully
0xc3eee0e0d3f62c43c1028bfbf95f955cc2155b86
- Realised P&L
- $-2.54
- Volume
- $100.71
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $11.21
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration26.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)87.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 18? · No | 0.991 | 0.994 | $2.85 | +$0.01 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 18? · No | 0.988 | 0.990 | $2.84 | +$0.00 |
| Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? · No | 0.980 | 0.998 | $2.25 | +$0.04 |
| Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? · No | 0.989 | 0.983 | $2.16 | −$0.01 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 17? · No | 0.992 | 0.990 | $1.11 | −$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.05at 0.980Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 31?
- +$0.05at 0.968Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's US Open?
- +$0.03at 0.986Will ŠK Slovan Bratislava win on 2026-09-09?
- +$0.02at 0.981Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's US Open?
- +$0.02at 0.991Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 20:01 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 17? | BUY | 0.992 | $1.11 |
| 09-15 19:59 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 18? | BUY | 0.9879999972 | $2.84 |
| 09-15 19:58 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 18? | BUY | 0.9909999976 | $2.84 |
| 09-15 19:57 | Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | BUY | 0.9889999954 | $2.17 |
| 09-08 05:16 | Will Qinwen Zheng win the 2026 Women’s US Open? | BUY | 0.0359999996 | $2.78 |
| 09-08 05:15 | Will ŠK Slovan Bratislava win on 2026-09-09? | BUY | 0.9849999955 | $2.20 |
| 09-08 05:14 | Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.98 | $2.21 |
| 09-08 05:13 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 9? | BUY | 0.99 | $1.53 |
| 09-02 17:01 | Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's US Open? | BUY | 0.9869999962 | $1.04 |
| 09-02 16:59 | Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's US Open? | BUY | 0.98 | $1.05 |
| 09-02 16:57 | Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's US Open? | BUY | 0.9669999817 | $1.48 |
| 08-30 11:00 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 31? | BUY | 0.99 | $1.99 |
| 08-30 10:59 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 31? | BUY | 0.9789999985 | $2.68 |