0xc38b913E7b2C18C45D9e02FB5b74229ADf1ed8a0-1760541005111
0xc38b913e7b2c18c45d9e02fb5b74229adf1ed8a0
- Realised P&L
- $-1.3k
- Volume
- $60.0k
- Markets traded
- 123
- Open portfolio
- $590.95
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded123
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? · No | 0.720 | 1.000 | $200.00 | +$56.00 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · Yes | 0.258 | 0.055 | $179.98 | −$663.30 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? · Yes | 0.710 | 1.000 | $140.84 | +$40.85 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.186 | 0.055 | $66.23 | −$157.52 |
| Will Elon Musk get full custody of the St. Clair child? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.039 | $3.90 | −$11.10 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.00 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? · Yes | 0.131 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$35.50 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$87.00 |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? · Yes | 0.366 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$36.59 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$195.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$310.44at 0.330US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$248.00at 0.660US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$136.79at 0.880US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?
- +$130.22at 0.380US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$104.78at 0.493TikTok sale announced in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-19 14:14 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $87.00 |
| 04-18 22:04 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $0.86 |
| 04-18 22:03 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET | BUY | 0.06 | $1.56 |
| 04-18 22:01 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET | BUY | 0.26 | $6.97 |
| 04-18 17:06 | Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.3658888889 | $16.47 |
| 04-18 15:33 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET | BUY | 0.23 | $2.04 |
| 04-18 11:33 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? | BUY | 0.02 | $5.00 |
| 04-18 09:55 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY | 0.72 | $144.00 |
| 04-18 06:02 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.19 | $133.00 |
| 04-17 17:25 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.76 | $152.00 |
| 04-15 13:22 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.52 | $104.00 |
| 04-14 18:56 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.82 | $164.00 |
| 04-12 17:26 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $41.40 |
| 04-12 13:44 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.0699999939 | $10.00 |
| 04-12 09:09 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1548541951 | $50.00 |