kjz
0xc36ad90e9b4d2548f303e8d69a1b828637c2c0f2
- Realised P&L
- $2.6k
- Volume
- $45.5k
- Markets traded
- 33
- Open portfolio
- $297.60
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded33
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample40 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)57.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration63.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? · Yes | 0.508 | 0.175 | $189.45 | −$360.31 |
| Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta? · No | 0.809 | 0.935 | $106.05 | +$14.28 |
| Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.217 | 0.011 | $2.10 | −$41.23 |
| North Korea missile launch by February 28? · No | 0.445 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$222.52 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by November 27? · Yes | 0.222 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$44.40 |
| US forces in Venezuela again by January 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$21.00 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? · Yes | 0.186 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$93.17 |
| Insurrection Act invoked by June 30? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$59.98 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by November 26? · Yes | 0.199 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.87 |
| Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.046 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$27.93 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$807.38at 0.276Will at least 50% of U.S. COVID-19 cases be from the Omicron variant on January 1, 2022?
- +$757.00at 0.243US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?
- +$390.63at 0.368US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?
- +$344.00at 0.320Maduro out by March 31, 2026?
- +$310.00at 0.557US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-19 18:13 | Insurrection Act invoked by March 31? | SELL | 0.0132287 | $2.65 |
| 03-19 18:11 | Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.0049478 | $1.48 |
| 03-09 18:41 | US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $15.05 |
| 03-03 02:52 | Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.082 | $3.36 |
| 03-02 21:51 | Insurrection Act invoked by June 30? | SELL | 0.15 | $14.25 |
| 03-02 12:24 | US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.28 | $7.84 |
| 02-28 20:03 | Insurrection Act invoked by March 31? | BUY | 0.0517719333 | $15.53 |
| 02-28 20:02 | Insurrection Act invoked by June 30? | BUY | 0.12 | $72.00 |
| 02-25 18:14 | Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta? | SELL | 0.88 | $88.00 |
| 02-23 13:41 | Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.076 | $0.08 |
| 02-15 14:54 | Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.011 | $11.00 |
| 02-14 16:58 | US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.11 | $11.00 |
| 02-08 05:41 | Winter Games 2026: Lindsey Vonn to medal? | BUY | 0.59 | $59.00 |
| 02-08 05:29 | Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta? | BUY | 0.86 | $78.62 |
| 02-08 05:28 | Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta? | BUY | 0.87 | $87.00 |