baselin
0xc35fa3901e72cd80ca00120f4e5c0ee22db110ec
- Realised P&L
- $-343.18
- Volume
- $5.7k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $0.05
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Consensys IPO by September 30 2026? · Yes | 0.536 | 0.001 | $0.05 | −$49.95 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.016 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET · Up | 0.476 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$105.72 |
| Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.548 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$156.41at 0.390US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?
- +$96.08at 0.510US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
- +$84.50at 0.542Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
- +$76.04at 0.677Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET
- +$55.78at 0.640Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 23:50 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET | BUY | 0.5899999991 | $200.00 |
| 08-04 23:46 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET | SELL | 0.45 | $183.71 |
| 08-04 23:46 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET | BUY | 0.450180658 | $100.00 |
| 08-04 23:45 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET | BUY | 0.4897962437 | $100.00 |
| 08-04 23:45 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET | BUY | 0.4899999991 | $100.00 |
| 08-04 23:45 | Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31? | SELL | 0.2375097752 | $29.16 |
| 08-04 23:44 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.65 | $49.13 |
| 06-20 03:36 | Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31? | BUY | 0.4072850342 | $50.00 |
| 06-20 03:32 | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5479468123 | $100.00 |
| 06-20 03:31 | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5479452055 | $100.00 |
| 06-20 03:21 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.997 | $155.78 |
| 03-13 02:13 | Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.5419999976 | $100.00 |
| 03-10 04:36 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6614742481 | $50.00 |
| 03-10 04:36 | Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $50.00 |
| 03-10 04:02 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET | BUY | 0.839999999 | $99.10 |