alihan
0xc3154c445927047f771920dba12200e2e5628e55
- Realised P&L
- $158.62
- Volume
- $112.4k
- Markets traded
- 40
- Open portfolio
- $91.50
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded40
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample43 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.002 | $91.50 | −$457.49 |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.12 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? · No | 0.810 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$24.30 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$431.53at 0.736zkSync airdrop by June 30?
- +$127.49at 0.490Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET
- +$110.73at 0.848Ethereum ETF approved by May 31?
- +$107.68at 0.730Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET
- +$99.85at 0.090Will the Turkish presidential election go to a second round?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-20 03:07 | Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | BUY | 0.28 | $8.12 |
| 02-27 22:08 | US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.61 | $12.25 |
| 02-26 20:53 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET | BUY | 0.956908 | $191.22 |
| 11-01 16:21 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.383 | $98.43 |
| 11-01 13:21 | Solana above $170 on November 1? | BUY | 0.58 | $35.86 |
| 11-01 08:06 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.388 | $106.70 |
| 10-09 20:14 | Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 11? | SELL | 0.28 | $14.00 |
| 07-10 14:01 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.876 | $219.00 |
| 07-10 14:00 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.62 | $124.00 |
| 07-03 23:09 | No Ethereum all time high in 2024? | BUY | 0.57 | $142.50 |
| 06-28 18:01 | Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.63 | $101.44 |
| 06-27 19:23 | Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.34 | $680.00 |
| 06-10 09:41 | zkSync airdrop by June 30? | SELL | 0.69 | $345.00 |
| 05-24 09:07 | Swell airdrop by June 30? | BUY | 0.64 | $240.00 |
| 05-23 21:42 | Ethereum ETF approved by May 31? | BUY | 0.85 | $576.50 |