MattyHBiggly
0xc301e502718c95465ebb28838c3f10cebf44b52f
- Realised P&L
- $-102.78
- Volume
- $3.0k
- Markets traded
- 53
- Open portfolio
- $116.49
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded53
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample43 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)39.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.395 | 0.475 | $69.80 | +$11.80 |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.035 | $29.85 | +$14.85 |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? · Yes | 0.540 | 0.140 | $6.48 | −$18.52 |
| JD Vance out as VP by December 31? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.045 | $4.50 | −$5.50 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.258 | 0.162 | $3.13 | −$1.87 |
| Kash Patel out by December 31? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.225 | $2.73 | −$5.27 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.112 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.00 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 England? · Yes | 0.044 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.49 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$22.00at 0.120US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$17.52at 0.630US forces enter Iran by December 31?
- +$11.42at 0.380Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$6.06at 0.682Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
- +$5.87at 0.460US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-11 18:57 | Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 England? | BUY | 0.0439999909 | $4.49 |
| 06-18 12:04 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | BUY | 0.5399999935 | $25.00 |
| 06-07 04:02 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1119999919 | $12.00 |
| 05-31 09:21 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.2579999745 | $5.00 |
| 05-31 09:19 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY | 0.3299999922 | $20.00 |
| 05-31 08:29 | JD Vance out as VP by December 31? | BUY | 0.1 | $10.00 |
| 05-09 04:02 | Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | BUY | 0.7199999808 | $30.00 |
| 05-03 12:08 | Kash Patel out by December 31? | BUY | 0.6599999785 | $8.00 |
| 05-03 12:05 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | SELL | 0.48 | $3.79 |
| 05-03 12:04 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? | SELL | 0.11 | $0.11 |
| 05-03 12:03 | Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.26 | $5.20 |
| 04-12 06:00 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.4399999912 | $26.00 |
| 04-12 05:54 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? | SELL | 0.11 | $23.52 |
| 04-12 05:53 | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | SELL | 0.48 | $4.29 |
| 04-10 18:44 | Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.54 | $10.80 |