ktv.politics
0xc2d7fef7f24d389cd28d52b48e6ecb172490deb5
- Realised P&L
- $-1.2k
- Volume
- $1.96M
- Markets traded
- 264
- Open portfolio
- $5.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded264
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration4.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.1kat 0.009US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
- +$3.0kat 0.107Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$2.4kat 0.018US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
- +$2.2kat 0.072Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$2.0kat 0.019Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 19:20 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.3 | $6.00 |
| 10-31 07:56 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.60 |
| 10-24 18:00 | Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.58 | $5.80 |
| 10-23 17:56 | Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | SELL | 0.56 | $3.36 |
| 09-22 13:29 | US recession by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $35.60 |
| 09-14 09:34 | Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.996 | $148.60 |
| 09-06 23:07 | Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? | BUY | 0.998 | $321.44 |
| 08-29 15:37 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | BUY | 0.992 | $19.83 |
| 08-29 04:11 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | BUY | 0.992 | $45.27 |
| 08-28 19:31 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.991 | $99.10 |
| 08-28 16:34 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.991 | $271.60 |
| 08-27 18:24 | Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | BUY | 0.992 | $124.00 |
| 08-23 09:55 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.317 | $3.17 |
| 08-23 09:55 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.317 | $3.17 |
| 08-22 06:38 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? | BUY | 0.992 | $49.60 |