erikacarter
0xc2aec9f9395312f85c0bb63d001fc15978582e71
- Realised P&L
- $80.26
- Volume
- $11.4k
- Markets traded
- 80
- Open portfolio
- $54.29
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded80
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will CDU win less than 8% of all valid second votes? · Yes | 0.750 | 1.000 | $28.37 | +$7.09 |
| Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $168 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.815 | $25.92 | +$0.48 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$52.35at 0.478Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025?
- +$42.11at 0.440Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference?
- +$41.31at 0.270Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?
- +$16.50at 0.670Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
- +$14.63at 0.740Will Joni Ernst vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-12 05:32 | Will CDU win less than 8% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.75 | $21.28 |
| 01-31 13:35 | Will Ethena hit $0.29 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.50 |
| 01-30 15:52 | Will Opendoor reach $9.25 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.65 |
| 01-30 15:35 | Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in January? | BUY | 0.995 | $13.75 |
| 01-30 13:19 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.42 |
| 01-30 12:03 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of January? | BUY | 0.9969999732 | $36.78 |
| 12-30 02:40 | Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $5.54 |
| 12-30 00:22 | Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $8.47 |
| 12-30 00:02 | Xi Jinping out in 2025? | BUY | 0.9969999646 | $25.60 |
| 12-29 18:49 | Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $25.96 |
| 10-30 18:57 | Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.38 |
| 10-30 18:35 | Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $17.25 |
| 09-29 14:09 | Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.75 |
| 09-29 02:12 | Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.997 | $18.31 |
| 09-29 00:41 | Will Meta have the second best AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.91 |