Ciro.No.G.A.Y.ra
0xc2a21efafe93d9529fb70aafdffed90850459fd9
- Realised P&L
- $-6.7k
- Volume
- $142.2k
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $730.76
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.093 | 0.011 | $725.76 | −$5.7k |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.002 | $5.00 | −$55.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.00at 0.400Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$-2.41at 0.780Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$-4.49at 0.660Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
- +$-187.26at 0.038Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$-768.78at 0.040Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-23 05:41 | Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.018 | $60.00 |
| 07-23 05:40 | Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.0032330453 | $66.85 |
| 06-16 00:25 | Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0189999914 | $2.14 |
| 06-12 13:36 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.1425708266 | $281.65 |
| 06-07 02:30 | Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0389007498 | $800.00 |
| 06-07 02:29 | Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.024 | $0.16 |
| 06-07 02:28 | Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.0252211079 | $337.10 |
| 05-23 02:39 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.12 | $491.61 |
| 05-23 02:32 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.119 | $307.77 |
| 05-22 18:24 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.1133351826 | $9.81 |
| 05-22 00:57 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.1228516572 | $900.00 |
| 05-21 20:13 | Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0518624599 | $300.00 |
| 05-21 18:49 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.1235048686 | $1.0k |
| 05-20 22:52 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.1539202901 | $1000.00 |
| 04-28 01:10 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.056751289 | $186.68 |