ltourl-20484
0xc2a0a8088752e6abb42498a014a736b8e583abd4
- Realised P&L
- $26.94
- Volume
- $3.9k
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $103.60
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration61.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.175 | 0.165 | $103.60 | −$6.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$27.05at 0.218Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?
- +$13.23at 0.018Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in January?
- +$3.99at 0.061Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
- +$-0.00at 0.230Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?
- +$-10.92at 0.059Trump out as President by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-13 02:55 | Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1221935731 | $35.00 |
| 04-27 13:40 | Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | SELL | 0.0853578967 | $13.99 |
| 04-02 03:37 | Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1417962034 | $10.00 |
| 04-02 03:37 | Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999919 | $10.00 |
| 03-30 00:24 | Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | BUY | 0.0609999944 | $10.00 |
| 02-14 17:08 | Trump out as President by March 31? | SELL | 0.027 | $9.08 |
| 01-14 20:47 | Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in January? | SELL | 0.0540581818 | $14.87 |
| 01-14 03:46 | Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in January? | SELL | 0.0330181818 | $18.16 |
| 12-30 03:19 | Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.296288973 | $20.00 |
| 12-10 13:39 | Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? | SELL | 0.63 | $28.95 |
| 12-05 04:09 | Trump out as President by March 31? | BUY | 0.0594691678 | $20.00 |
| 12-01 02:50 | Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? | SELL | 0.3937845484 | $18.09 |
| 11-22 01:07 | Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2786919929 | $15.00 |
| 11-18 19:19 | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | SELL | 0.23 | $20.00 |
| 11-16 19:26 | Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? | BUY | 0.2176084762 | $20.00 |