Xk7bLp3TzM
0xc260b6e3ad0c81e0da3ac637874fb4fcbff5d7cc
- Realised P&L
- $-387.46
- Volume
- $143.0k
- Markets traded
- 180
- Open portfolio
- $876.10
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded180
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.6kat 0.023Xi Jinping out before 2027?
- +$2.8kat 0.023Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?
- +$2.7kat 0.032Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
- +$1.9kat 0.050Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
- +$1.1kat 0.025Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 10:55 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.022 | $1.42 |
| 10-31 02:01 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | BUY | 0.92 | $219.38 |
| 09-21 01:46 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BUY | 0.968 | $14.97 |
| 09-18 10:51 | Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.033 | $6.08 |
| 09-11 13:54 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.133 | $34.24 |
| 09-11 10:59 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.036 | $6.84 |
| 09-04 12:30 | Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.975 | $148.84 |
| 08-29 09:09 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.89 | $278.85 |
| 08-29 06:33 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $21.47 |
| 01-10 12:55 | Heat vs. Pacers | BUY | 0.73 | $100.00 |
| 01-07 12:34 | Rockets vs. Trail Blazers | BUY | 0.6999999991 | $80.00 |
| 01-07 12:33 | Suns vs. Grizzlies | BUY | 0.64 | $80.00 |
| 01-07 12:32 | Pelicans vs. Hawks | BUY | 0.8 | $60.00 |
| 01-07 12:31 | Magic vs. Nets | BUY | 0.5499999963 | $60.00 |
| 01-07 12:30 | Clippers vs. Knicks | BUY | 0.6599999991 | $60.00 |