0xc24f642337340c33d5d905233c5c306296519537
- Realised P&L
- $13.13
- Volume
- $390.00
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $51.95
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration81.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · No | 0.800 | 0.925 | $8.32 | +$1.13 |
| U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? · No | 0.450 | 0.885 | $7.08 | +$3.48 |
| China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.910 | 0.935 | $6.54 | +$0.17 |
| Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? · No | 0.929 | 0.921 | $6.45 | −$0.06 |
| Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · No | 0.660 | 0.925 | $5.55 | +$1.59 |
| Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? · No | 0.949 | 0.979 | $4.89 | +$0.15 |
| Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? · No | 0.934 | 0.964 | $4.82 | +$0.15 |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · No | 0.468 | 0.912 | $4.56 | +$2.22 |
| Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.157 | 0.085 | $2.55 | −$2.15 |
| Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? · Yes | 0.075 | 0.036 | $0.50 | −$0.55 |
| U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.043 | $0.47 | −$0.63 |
| Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.105 | $0.21 | −$0.09 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$21.49at 0.500Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
- +$4.34at 0.380Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?
- +$0.29at 0.363Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?
- +$0.15at 0.240Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
- +$0.00at 0.500SBF released from custody in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-15 04:58 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.13 | $1.82 |
| 07-09 17:51 | Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? | BUY | 0.363 | $2.54 |
| 07-09 02:26 | Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.949 | $4.75 |
| 07-05 01:42 | China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $6.37 |
| 06-24 04:51 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.934 | $4.67 |
| 06-22 02:10 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.18 | $2.88 |
| 06-16 05:41 | Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.66 | $3.96 |
| 06-13 11:50 | Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? | BUY | 0.929 | $6.50 |
| 06-08 02:26 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.075 | $1.05 |
| 06-05 10:53 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.10 |
| 06-02 05:41 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.468 | $2.34 |
| 05-26 03:29 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.8 | $7.20 |
| 05-21 00:55 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.15 | $3.30 |
| 04-17 19:35 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.094 | $1.41 |
| 04-15 18:06 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.79 | $3.95 |