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0xc24901c1189d2b3986a73bb399f146dbbbf03e9a
- Realised P&L
- $-1.8k
- Volume
- $98.0k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $5.6k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration44.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.135 | $3.1k | −$345.90 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No | 0.150 | 0.145 | $2.5k | −$87.44 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$997.90at 0.850Will Israel target an Iranian oil or gas facility?
- +$976.82at 0.341Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$199.03at 0.870Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after November 2024 meeting?
- +$49.53at 0.958No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?
- +$16.33at 0.930European Central Bank cuts rates in Oct meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-17 15:00 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.15 | $1.3k |
| 10-05 05:13 | Israel military response against Iran by Sunday? | BUY | 0.15 | $282.42 |
| 10-05 05:12 | Israel military response against Iran by Sunday? | BUY | 0.14 | $68.97 |
| 10-04 01:18 | Will Israel target Tehran? | BUY | 0.95 | $69.00 |
| 10-04 01:16 | Will Israel target an Iranian oil or gas facility? | BUY | 0.85 | $4.5k |
| 10-04 00:44 | Will Israel target an Iranian oil or gas facility? | BUY | 0.85 | $1.2k |
| 09-01 20:42 | No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | BUY | 0.958 | $842.35 |