0xc1bbc015b918d2a27cc0c37338dd45445796b239
0xc1bbc015b918d2a27cc0c37338dd45445796b239
- Realised P&L
- $11.84
- Volume
- $384.11
- Markets traded
- 114
- Open portfolio
- $11.29
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded114
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration14.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $785 Week of October 12 2026? · No | 0.360 | 0.590 | $1.64 | +$0.64 |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.495 | $1.46 | +$0.46 |
| Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11? · No | 0.730 | 0.880 | $1.21 | +$0.21 |
| Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.750 | $1.07 | +$0.07 |
| Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in September? · No | 0.660 | 0.655 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.345 | $0.93 | −$0.07 |
| Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September? · No | 0.640 | 0.580 | $0.91 | −$0.09 |
| Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September? · No | 0.700 | 0.575 | $0.82 | −$0.18 |
| Progressive (PGR) Q3 combined ratio 86% to 89%? · No | 0.460 | 0.365 | $0.79 | −$0.21 |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? · No | 0.670 | 0.505 | $0.75 | −$0.25 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026? · No | 0.550 | 0.395 | $0.72 | −$0.28 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.62at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
- +$5.41at 0.270Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31?
- +$4.60at 0.310Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
- +$4.38at 0.321Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$3.31at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 06:59 | Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 22:59 | Progressive (PGR) Q3 combined ratio 86% to 89%? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 22:56 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $785 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 14:47 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 06:47 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 22:44 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 13:45 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 13:41 | Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 05:30 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 05:22 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 17:39 | Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 09:32 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in September? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 23:47 | Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 15:41 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 06:38 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.71399991 | $1.00 |