lfchange
0xc1a2e273a6854e70d0132484a33cde5541e602a5
- Realised P&L
- $-884.85
- Volume
- $12.4k
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $61.71
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration76.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? · Yes | 0.737 | 0.370 | $47.11 | −$46.76 |
| Russia lifts diesel export ban by October 15? · Yes | 0.793 | 0.910 | $12.28 | +$1.58 |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.070 | $2.31 | −$0.33 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.002 | $0.01 | −$0.03 |
| Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$139.99 |
| Maduro out by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$168.70 |
| Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 15? · No | 0.994 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$345.72 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$41.16at 0.756Will Russia capture Huliaipole by January 31?
- +$40.10at 0.342Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?
- +$12.68at 0.959Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
- +$2.60at 0.740Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$1.05at 0.590Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-10 15:02 | Russia lifts diesel export ban by October 15? | BUY | 0.792636628 | $10.70 |
| 08-26 15:38 | Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? | BUY | 0.82 | $24.87 |
| 08-26 15:32 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.74 | $7.40 |
| 01-03 17:09 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? | SELL | 0.38 | $15.91 |
| 12-16 03:02 | Will Russia capture Huliaipole by January 31? | BUY | 0.76 | $124.29 |
| 12-16 03:02 | Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? | SELL | 0.66 | $124.29 |
| 12-13 08:34 | Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? | SELL | 0.65 | $3.25 |
| 11-16 14:20 | Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? | BUY | 0.8 | $4.14 |
| 11-16 13:45 | Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? | BUY | 0.79 | $49.09 |
| 11-15 07:09 | Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 15? | BUY | 0.994 | $345.72 |
| 11-15 06:44 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31? | SELL | 0.34 | $309.59 |
| 11-10 04:33 | Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 14? | BUY | 0.9399999934 | $2.87 |
| 09-03 12:17 | Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? | BUY | 0.96 | $2.75 |
| 08-09 06:31 | Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together by August 31? | BUY | 0.9299996694 | $2.56 |
| 06-05 08:46 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31? | BUY | 0.3991334498 | $452.54 |