0xc181fa2b73e28acf218b8006f0f850a1e07af271
0xc181fa2b73e28acf218b8006f0f850a1e07af271
- Realised P&L
- $3.90
- Volume
- $166.05
- Markets traded
- 61
- Open portfolio
- $2.62
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded61
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration67.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $785 Week of October 12 2026? · No | 0.550 | 0.970 | $1.76 | +$0.76 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 17? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.515 | $0.86 | −$0.14 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.51at 0.227Trump renames AI by September 30?
- +$2.38at 0.359Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,350 Week of August 31 2026?
- +$2.28at 0.369Will Warsh say "Framework" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?
- +$2.00at 0.339Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $195 Week of October 5 2026?
- +$1.63at 0.450Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of August 17 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 19:56 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 17? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 11:26 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $785 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 02:54 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 16:12 | Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on October 13? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 19:59 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.4399998592 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 11:42 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 03:03 | Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $16.6B? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 18:51 | Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q3 investment banking fees be above $3.2B? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 04:38 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 23:36 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $61 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 15:12 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $195 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 00:51 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $192.50 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 17:45 | Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 08:52 | Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 08:52 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 1? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |